Episode #33: Seven sources of new listings in today's market!

**Introduction**
- Host: Bob Mangold, The Listing Coach
- Episode: 33
- Podcast: "If You List, You Last"
- Thank you for listening, sharing, and downloading
- Invitation to join the Real Estate Asset Advisor Facebook group

**Upcoming Live Podcast**
- Topic: Overcoming Objections
- Format: Live on Zoom, recorded for future podcast
- Join Facebook group for updates and notifications

**Market Update**
- **New Home Data**:
  - Annual sales pace: 619,000 homes, down 11.3% month-over-month
  - Revised data shows a 2.4% drop, highlighting inaccuracies in reported figures
  - Median home price: down 0.1% month-over-month, 1% year-over-year
  - Misleading media reports on home prices
  - Total inventory: 481,000 homes, but only 99,000 completed

- **Employment Data**:
  - Federal Reserve officials claim employment data is inaccurate
  - Seasonal adjustments distort the true picture of employment

- **PCE and Inflation Numbers**:
  - Inflation around 2.8%, excluding food and shelter
  - Impact on bond market and potential rate cuts

**Listings Insights**
- **Market Reality**:
  - Despite low-interest rates, certain segments will always sell homes
  - Homeowners facing financial strain may consider selling

- **Mortgage and Debt Analysis**:
  - Example of a widower benefiting from debt analysis and home sale

**Sources for Listings**
1. **FSBOs and Expireds**:
   - Low hanging fruit, essential for agents
   - Upcoming class on how to approach these leads

2. **Divorce**:
   - 67.5% of divorced homeowners sell within 24 months
   - Home Boss listing system helps maximize value with minimal hassle

3. **Seniors**:
   - 58% of listings in 2023 from homeowners aged 55 and older
   - Seniors often need to downsize due to various life changes

4. **Flippers**:
   - Specialized approach to working with property flippers
   - Potential for consistent transactions and referrals

5. **Probate**:
   - Handling inherited properties
   - Providing resources and support to families during difficult times

6. **Expired Listings from 12-18 Months Ago**:
   - Revisiting old expired listings for potential opportunities
   - Targeting specific zip codes for better results

7. **Airbnb Owners**:
   - Identifying struggling Airbnb owners looking to sell
   - Researching and reaching out to these potential sellers

**Conclusion**
- Encouragement to build databases and follow-up systems
- Invitation to join the Real Estate Asset Advisor Network for support
- Weekly overview webinar on Thursdays
- Final thoughts: Importance of consistent effort and strategic planning in real estate

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**Links and Contact Information**
- Facebook group: Real Estate Asset Advisor
- Schedule a call: www.brainstormwithbob.com
- Webinar registration: www.creaoverview.com

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**Closing**
- Encouragement to go out and take listings
- Reminder: "If you list, you last."

Join our Facebook Group at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/realestateassetadvisors

Visit our website to watch replays of our Wednesday "Elevate Business Briefings" at: www.RealEstateAssetAdvisors.org

Download a copy of my book, "If you list, you last!" at www.IfYouListYouLast.com

Transcript

Hey, welcome fellow listing agents, Bob Mangold, also known as The Listing Coach, here with episode 33 of the If You List, You Last podcast. As always, thanks for listening, sharing, and downloading. And just a quick reminder,  make sure you join our Real Estate Asset Advisor Facebook group so you can join in on the conversation, share your thoughts, comments, or questions on any of the topics I discuss right here on the podcast.

And let me give an example why that might be important is I want to do a podcast in the next few weeks. overcoming objections. And I want to do it live on Zoom and record it so that I could have agents on there putting out any objection that they come across and they don't know how to answer. And I'll turn it into a podcast for everybody.

So that's where I'll give the links and make notifications of when I'm going to be able to do that. So just another good reason to join the Facebook group.  Now, the number one response I hear when I talk with agents right now about listings is Well, people just aren't selling in this market. They don't want to give up their low interest rate loans.

The truth, there are segments of the market that will always be selling homes. Always, no matter what the interest rates are, what the real estate market's doing or how the economy's growing good or bad. So today I thought I'd help you out with that and share some thoughts and resources. of where we're finding listings in today's market and what we're teaching agents at the Real Estate Asset Advisor Group.

Let's start with this week's market update. So first, let's talk about new home data that came out this morning, or I'm sorry, came out this week. And again, I want to share this with you. Number one, so that you know about it. Number two is I want you to understand how What the consumer is seeing is wrong or jaded So they announced the annual sales pace was six hundred nineteen thousand homes this year Which is down eleven point three percent month over month So the news all last week was about oh my god new home sales are cratering 11.

3 percent  The reality of it is that number is not accurate. They revised the month before You By almost 9%. If without revisions, they would have been honest with the numbers. Last month, the annual sales pace dropped by 2. 4%. Not really very significant. But because they continually give us false numbers.

Last month, they wanted, hey, the numbers to look really good. So they inflated them. Then the next month when nobody's paying attention, because everybody looks at the headline numbers, then they make the revisions. So the reality of it is annual home sales pace right now is only down two and a half percent, which is not really that significant.

Now the median home price was down one 10th month over month, 1 percent a year. Again, what is the media reporting? Oh, housing prices are going down. No, they're not. Case Shiller last week, no home prices are going to be up about 10 percent this year. The median home price. What median means is for every home above 417, 000, one sold below 417, 000.

That's all it is. In the mix of what a builder's building, they're trying to build smaller, lower cost homes to be able to keep up with sales. Another area in which these numbers are totally deceptive to the consumer, totally deceptive. They said the total inventory currently sits at 481, 000 homes, which is on the, based on a 52, 000 per month sales pace, there's 9.

3 months worth of inventory. It's an absolute lie  because it's the number of homes that are completed that matters. So of that 481, 000, only 99, 000 are completed, which means the rest are sitting there with permits or air. They haven't even started them. So how could you buy them?  So if we took the 99, 000 number  and divided that by 52, 000, we actually have 1.

92 months worth of supply in the new home category.  So again, the numbers are just being fed to us and it's just outright lies. And if you need proof,  this week Michelle Bowman and I forget the other Fed Governor  didn't basically come out. They came out and said the employment data that we receive is bogus.

It's BS. They don't even know where they're getting the numbers from. So you hear me all the time talk about, hey they released this number this week and wow the jobs were great. All they did is would make seasonal adjustments. What's a seasonal adjustment? They make whatever number they want up for it.

And so consequently employment data is completely false. And now fed board governors are saying the same thing, that the numbers are a lie and they don't even know what the real employment data is. But the one thing Michelle Bowman said, she knows that it's not good. Again, we have to know this because our job now is to educate the consumer.

Then PCE and inflation numbers came out this week. PCE is the number that the Fed really pays attention to. And it was just pure out flat. So that leaves still inflation right around 2. 8 percent roughly not in our 2 percent market, which is fine. But remember that excludes food and shelter.  How can you exclude food and shelter from a number?

Unless people stopped eating for the month.  So again, we just make those numbers look however we want them to look because anybody who goes to the grocery store, anybody who goes to the gas prices I honestly, I don't really fill up that often. It might be every two weeks. When I went to fill up this week, it was like 27 cents a gallon more expensive than when I filled up a couple of weeks ago. 

How can you say we don't include that. The important thing is how will the bond market react? And the truth is on Friday, it didn't react particularly favorable. Nothing horrible. But what happens is when they say inflation is cooling,  it means the Fed is getting closer to maybe cutting rates, right?

So once we get inflation under control, then the Fed's going to cut rates. The truth is, if the numbers are a lie, then we really have higher than 2. 6. Right now, the Fed's not cutting that interest rate anytime soon. If they cut the rate in September, I would be shocked because they will be accused, and rightfully of election interference. 

Now if they have numbers that they can come out and say, Hey, we better do this in September before the market crashes. That would be a different thing. But so far, none of the data supports that. So I still believe while interest rates have come down a little bit, that will certainly help the real estate market.

But again, don't look for any wholesale changes anytime soon. And how will that impact us? That's what I'm going to talk about in listings now. So let's talk about listings.  Again, the number one thing I hear is, hey, low interest rates are preventing listings. Now, the reality is homeowners are running out of cash.

Credit card balances are at an all time high. We've never been in as much debt as we've been in. The savings rate has crashed, meaning people don't have money in the bank anymore. And their cash flow is being crushed between debt and inflation. Pay is not keeping up with inflation, meaning our buying power is substantially down.

All of those things are true.  And people not selling their house because of the interest rate.  It is true, but if we actually did a mortgage and debt analysis for people, and I'll just give you an example, and just the numbers are approximate. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I did this with a client a couple weeks ago, and he had the same thing.

Hey, I don't really want to do this, but I don't need this big house anymore, and I have a low interest rate. He was a widower, and etc. So he didn't need this big house, but he's my gosh, I just don't want give up my three percent rate. When we did a mortgage analysis, we looked at what his credit card debt was, his payments his car payments were, his ability to save any money, he's retired it was not good, right?

It was an ugly scenario. I'll just leave it at that. And what I did is I just said here's what we can do when you sell your house approximately for this, you're going to have X dollars. available to you. Then let's take the dollars and pay off all the credit cards, which were substantial, right?

So substantial to me is, anything above 30, 000 in credit card debt to me is substantial. Bear in mind, folks, that interest rate on those things are almost 30 percent and they're not deductible. So I did a mortgage analysis, said, Hey, when you sell a house, let's pay off all these other things.

You'll still have enough money to take and put a down payment down to keep you under 80 percent LTV. So you're not going to have mortgage insurance. And yes, your interest rate will be higher, but his cashflow difference, meaning how much money was leaving his house each month by doing that.  It was like 1, 450 a month less.

even with the higher interest rate. And he had no debt. And then when I factor in the tax break that he gets on the mortgage interest versus the interest on the credit card debt, that actually went to over 2, 100 a month. He had more money available for cashflow for living when he's retired. So while they may say that folks, you say, Hey, when was the last time you actually did a total debt analysis to see what your actual true interest rate is on all your debt.

Because we know people are in debt at all time highs.  And we know all those other things are true. What if we were able to take and help them switch homes and be able to increase their cash flow even though, yes, their interest rate was higher. So number one, you need to do a mortgage and debt analysis. 

So let's talk about seven different sources, really eight different sources, where you can find listings. Let's do the low hanging fruit, FSBOs and expireds. Everybody should be doing that. Now I say that and I know that 99 percent of you listening won't. And so I don't have the time to go into it on the podcast, but one of the Elevate Business briefings that we do every other Wednesday is on what do you say to FSBOs and expireds, right?

How do we do this? How do we get the listings? So different class for a different time, but folks, FSBOs and expireds are there in every single market. So why wouldn't we reach out to them? So those are the low hanging fruit. Number two is divorce people getting diviv divorced. Here are the numbers guys.

These aren't my numbers. 19.1% of every homeowner will sell their house in the first year after they file for divorce. 48.4 will sell in the second. That means for every hundred people that own a home that get divorced, 67. 5 percent of them will sell their home in 24 months. Now I've had agents actually tell me, Oh my God, that's so low class that you would even talk about this.

I personally, I don't get it.  I know that using the Home Boss listing system, we can get people the highest market value guaranteed in 14 days without any of the hassles and headaches because people getting divorced don't need any more hassles and headaches.  And we do it at half the traditional fee of a normal listing.

So I'm in a position to help these families transition over to maybe two households, selling a house, buying two houses. So if you're offended by talking about people getting divorced, folks, that's real life. I'm here to help those people. I can help them get more money. Put more money in their pocket be able to help and guide and transition them.

I have a whole database of Resources that they need Movers and repair people and painters. I'm a resource for these people. I'm here to help them  So if you're listening to this and go, oh, it's so tacky to talk about divorce I'm going to tell you get over yourself And if you can't you're just simply not willing To help the people when they need you the most the truth is guys These families need you more going through that process than ever before You  It's the number one most stressful thing in their life.

And they're going to sell the house. 67 and a half percent of them are going to sell the house. Why don't you put a system in a strategy, start working on building resources that you can serve as these people. And then unfortunately, folks, you're always going to have a steady stream  of people getting divorced.

Like we have divorce leads coming into us. every two weeks. So again, I don't want to go into that here, but if you want to find out how you can do that, then just go ahead and schedule a call with me at www. brainstormwithbob. com because it's a huge niche. The other thing it does, folks, is it allows you to start to have conversations with divorce lawyers so that they can refer their people to you.

The only thing better than having somebody who definitely is going to sell their house is have somebody who's definitely going to sell their house referred to you by their attorney. It's a powerful strategy and niche. So if you're offended by it I'm sorry. Number three, seniors. Folks, in 2022, 65 percent Yeah, 2022.

2022, 65 percent of all homes listed in the United States were by somebody 55 and older. In 2023, it was 58%. Here's the thing, folks. As people get older, They're going to sell their house. They can't take the upkeep. Many times it's the house they raise their kids in. So it's way too big for them. And as they get older, they can't take care of it.

Or maybe their kids have moved across country and they want to be closer to their grandkids or health issues come up. All those things are real life. It's going to happen to every one of us, but they're responsible for about six out of 10 listings in the United States.  Wouldn't you want a list of those?

And then. I have parameters that we input that we can take and build that database and be able to increase the likelihood that they're gonna sell sooner rather than later. So a huge niche for that. Number four, flippers. Guys, do you know that data's available? You can find people to flip four, five, 10, 15 homes, whatever number you wanna insert.

So let me just challenge you this way.  What if you had 10 flippers that were flipping five properties a year and they worked with you exclusively? That'd be 50 transactions a year.  Real estate's really not a hard business, folks. The problem is most agents don't have a good reason for a flipper to work with them. They may be working with their friend. Oh, yeah. I know this agent for years great if I call them up and said Hey, Joe blow. My name is Bob. I'm with the HP realty and hate what I do is I specialize in working with flippers Because I'm able to help them turn their homes about 60 percent faster for about 25 percent more money So they can turn their inventory and have additional cash at the end  And if we could help you do that, would you be okay about maybe meeting for coffee and seeing if there's a way we could work together? We obviously use the Home Boss listing system to do that. And when we do that, folks, we have flippers that give us their properties. Here's the great news. When they're a good flipper, meaning they do a really good job on their properties, and it shows up really well in photography, we kill it in open houses and sales. Flippers are a great place. Probate. Again, folks, these people have a problem. They, by and large, have inherited a house. Most of them don't want to keep it. Many of the houses are run down, right? The parents were older, they didn't take care of it, so everything's outdated, or never replaced the roofs, things like that. 

Again, You go, oh I'm taking advantage of people. No, I'm not. The family has to sell the thing. Shouldn't they sell it for the most amount of money? Again, I have resources that I can provide, tradespeople, painters, roofing companies, that I can refer to them that I know won't screw them or take advantage of them when they're down and out, right?

Chances are great it's a kid and their parent died or, one of the two spouses died, something like that.  We need to have a Rolodex of people that we can provide and be a resource for that.  Here's another thing, folks. We're in the real estate business. You want to get wealthy in real estate?

It's not really by making commissions.  Why aren't you maybe buying some of these properties? Even if you didn't have the money right now, what if you put together four or five different cash investors and you guys started making offers on them? It's huge business. Number six, expired listings from 12 to 18 months ago.

Now again, they  don't convert at a high rate because something changed for them. Now it could have been they were crazy in their price or whatever it is, but just to give you some context folks in Maricopa County, there are a little bit over 18, 000 homes that expired 12 to 18 months ago. Now you could never reach out to all those people. 

What if you broke it down by zip codes and you only reached out to the ones in places that you Wanted to work. That would be better, wouldn't it? So a great resource again, not a huge conversion rate, but trust me folks, they're in there. And then finally, number, I guess it would be eight if I included the physicals and expires in initially are Airbnb owners.

Do you know there's ways to use Airbnb to find out who hasn't  rented their house in 34 months?  They're Airbnb owners all over the country selling properties because they're not able to rent it like they used to be. They're not able to get the premier prices for it, so their cash flow stinks. And there are tons of them  actually selling their properties.

You just gotta do a little bit of research and a little bit of finding out. So when I ask agents, what do you do all day, it's I don't know, I'm trying to figure all this stuff out. It's are you going through Airbnb and figuring out how to find these people and then reach out to them?

Oh, that sounds like a lot of work.  Oh, but you take a list of 400, 000 home, median price in the U. S., right? Excuse 400, 000. That's 12, 000. If you spend two hours doing that and you got paid 12, 000 that's 6, 000 an hour for you to do a little bit of research. But it's there, folks. We just have to take and open up our mind about what's available to us.

Make sense? Now, if you need help building databases like this, along with a proven consistent follow up system, right? Because not everybody's selling, this week. It'd be cool if it was, but doesn't it work that way, right?  The reality is folks, you should consider becoming a member of the Real Estate Asset Advisor Network.

It's what we do. One of the prime pillars of what we help agents do is build a database. and build it to a number that they can handle and manage, right? That could be 15, 000 people.  Imagine if you had a database of all seven or six of these groups, right? Airbnb, you got to do a little bit of research on your own.

What if you already knew them and you could identify them as being likely to sell?  Folks, that's what we do. So if you have any interest on that, listen, every Thursday at noon Eastern time, I do a webinar, that does an overview of what we do, all of what we do  in the Real Estate Asset Advisor Network, right?

So we abbreviate it to C R E A, CREA, Certified Real Estate Asset Advisor. So if you want to register for one of those classes, just go to www. creaoverview. com. And then we run through that every week. If you've got some interest, great. If you don't, Great, at least say you learned. So I wanted to share these resources with you this week because I thought it would be important to start to understand the market differently and start to examine it, right?

Hey, if I was you and I'm not listing like I should, I'd start in my database. And if you don't know how to do a mortgage and debt analysis, gosh, I would hope your loan officer would know how to do that.  Now, if you're listening in Arizona or California or Texas we actually could help you with that, but you need to go into your database and start talking to your sellers and say, Hey, have you considered, I know interest rates are different, but if there was a way that you could buy a home and increase your cashflow, actually save money by buying a different home, would you consider selling and buying? That's the first place you should start with,  but you have to know how to do that mortgage and debt analysis. And guys, it's not rocket science. It's just math.  But I want to share those other resources with you, so that you understand, this isn't rocket science. They're there. Divorce, seniors, flippers, probate, expired listings.

Guys, they're going to be there, no matter what the economy is no matter what the interest rate is like. It doesn't matter. You will always have business from them. And so  I thought it would be an important topic to cover today, and give you some things to think about. And again, if you need help, Then you can either, come to one of our CREA overviews or you can go to brainstorm with bob.

com and schedule a call with me and we can talk through what that could look like for you. I hope that helps. I hope that gave you something to think about. And really folks, I hope it encourages you so that you've got a little bit more confidence that, hey, you don't have to have these slumps in your business and you don't have to have erratic cashflow.

If you just know where to find the people and then you have systems and structures in place. to go out and get the listings. And then our strategy when we have a listing is to always get five prop, five more transactions from one listing. So for example, one of my agents in Northwest Chicago on Mother's Day weekend had 586 people from his open house. 

He's picked up nine transactions from that. Again, this doesn't have to be a hard business. And remember you go, yeah, but I don't want to work with buyers. And I'm coached that. But remember folks, 64 percent of all buyers  have a house to sell. So bear that in mind. So I hope it helps. Hope I gave you some things to think about.

I hope it gives you some encouragement so you can feel confident about the future if you just build your business properly. So that's it for this show. We'll talk to you next week. And remember, if you list, you last. Have a great weekend. Go out and take some listings.